Republicans Expected To Sweep Statewide Races UWYO Survey Finds
Telephone interviews with 436 Wyoming residents were conducted by the University of Wyoming's Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center’s Survey Research Center. The research was conducted from October 22 to November 3, by selecting residents at random. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, according to the release.
Jim King, a professor of political science and the survey’s director, says the poll indicates that the 2022 contests in Wyoming do not vary substantially from previous elections.
“Republican candidates have won all races for the five statewide executive offices since 1994 and all races for the U.S. House of Representatives since 1978. Our survey indicates that Republican domination of Wyoming elections continues,” King says.
King also noted that the Republicans are assured of winning the offices of secretary of state, treasurer, and auditor, as there are no Democratic candidates on the ballot in these races.
Wyoming’s August primary drew national attention, as Hageman defeated incumbent Liz Cheney for the Republican nomination for U.S. House. That election continues to echo in the state.
According to the survey, 94 percent, almost all of the respondents reported that they voted for Hageman in the primary, and are planning to vote for Hageman on November 8. However, 67 percent of those who voted for Cheney in August reported they intend to cast their ballots for Democrat Grey Bull.
In the race for governor, incumbent Mark Gordon is cruising to a second term. 76 percent of survey respondents, including 89 percent of Republicans and 73 percent of independents showed their support for Gordon.
A majority of Democrats, 54 percent, support Theresa Livingston, their party’s nominee, but nearly a third of Democrats, 31 percent, reported planning to vote for the incumbent Republican.
Assessments of the economy appear to have little impact on voters’ choices for governor.
“It isn’t surprising that most Wyomingites believe both the national economy and the state economy have gotten worse over the last year. Eighty-two percent of our survey respondents said the U.S. economy has gotten worse, while 60 percent held the same opinion of the Wyoming economy. Despite this, assessment of economic conditions isn’t affecting people’s choices in the race for governor,” King says.
Instead, general perceptions of Gordon’s performance in office seem to be influencing voters, with only those rating Gordon’s performance as “poor” preferring Livingston over the incumbent.
The most competitive of the statewide races are for superintendent of public instruction. Republican Megan Degenfelder leads Democrat Sergio Maldonado Sr. 54 percent to 24 percent, with 22 percent undecided. According to King, elections to lower-profile offices such as this typically hinge on party identification.
“A majority of the undecided voters in this race identify with the Republican Party and can be expected to support Degenfelder. It’s doubtful that these people will cross party lines or that many of Degenfelder’s current supporters will switch their votes come election day. Although the race might be close, Degenfelder is expected to prevail,” King says.