Robert Roten’s Oscar Picks

Robert Roten is a frequent Laramie Live contributor who provides the Laramie Movie Forecast segment both online and for our broadcasts on KOWB.  He is the creator of the Laramie Movie Scope website.

There were a lot of good movies in 2012, so there is a lot of competition in the Academy Awards this year. There are not too many sure bets, but there area a couple you can take to the bank.

Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win the Academy Award for best actor for his portrayal of President Abraham Lincoln in the film "Lincoln." Nobody else has a chance.

The best foreign film Oscar will go to the Austrian film, "Amour". It is a lock. "Amour" has won every other major award in every other competition this year, but it probably won't win the Oscar for Best Picture overall.

The favorite for the Best Picture Oscar seems to be "Argo." The reason is momentum, according to industry sources. It has been winning a lot of awards leading up to the Oscars, including the Director's Guild Award, and a Screen Actors Guild ensemble award. Personally, I would take "Lincoln" any day of the week over "Argo," but it sure looks like "Lincoln" is going to lose this fight, for whatever reason.

One good thing about a win for "Argo:" It would be sweet revenge for Ben Affleck. He was a favorite whipping boy in Hollywood a few years ago. Filmmakers Trey Parker and Matt Stone, creators the popular “South Park” cartoon series, were among those heaping abuse on Affleck. Parker and Stone spent a fair portion of their film "Team America: World Police" ridiculing Affleck and the film "Pearl Harbor," which Affleck starred in. Of course Affleck already has an Academy Award, and a lot of other awards, for a film he co-wrote with Matt Damon, "Good Will Hunting."

One of the major omissions of the Academy Awards this year is that Ben Affleck who won the Director's Guild Award for Argo, was not nominated for a best director Oscar. He probably would win that award easily if he was nominated. Since Affleck is out of the running, Steven Spielberg is the favorite to win the award for "Lincoln." That will be his consolation prize for unjustly losing the best picture award to "Argo."

In the race for best actress Jennifer Lawrence of "Silver Linings Playbook" appears to have the advantage over of Jessica Chastain of "Zero Dark Thirty." Generally, comedies don't get much respect from the Academy, but Jennifer Lawrence and "Silver Linings Playbook" are exceptions to this rule.

The Academy Award for best animated film will probably go to the Disney film "Brave". The animated field is fairly weak this year with no clear favorite, so Disney and its Pixar division will probably win this award by default. Pixar in particular practically owns this award.

Please be sure to visit the Laramie Movie Scope Website for a look at Robert Roten's personal picks for the best films of 2012.