According to a new survey by the University of Wyoming's Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center (WYSAC), Wyoming Republican primary candidate Harriet Hageman is leading incumbent Liz Cheney by nearly 30 points in the primary race for Wyoming’s lone seat in the U.S.

The survey that was conducted from July 25 through Aug. 6, yielded 562 responses from Wyoming residents identified as likely voters in the Aug. 16 Republican Party primary. The margin of error for the primary survey is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The GOP primary votes results are --

  • 28 percent for incumbent candidate Cheney
  • 57 percent for candidate Hageman
  • 2 percent for candidate Anthony Bouchard
  • Below 1 percent for both candidates, Denton Knapp and Robyn Belinskey
  • 10 percent of likely GOP voters say they are still undecided.

When asked about their votes, respondents said that --

  • 66 percent in support of incumbent congresswoman Cheney
  • 29 percent in support of other candidates
  • 41 percent, a vote was in opposition to Cheney

Traditionally, surveys polling primary elections might use lists of registered voters in that party. While that approach may be more cost-effective, there are potential shortcomings that needed to be considered in a primary such as this.

“When looking only at residents who say they are Republican and likely voters in the primary, we actually see Hageman leading by roughly 50 points,”  says Brian Harnisch, director of WYSAC.

Among Wyoming residents who identify as Democrats and likely voters in this primary season, roughly half say they will vote in the Republican primary. Cheney received 98 percent support from this group. Among Republican likely voters in the GOP primary, Cheney is polling at roughly 15 percent. Among likely voters in the primary who identify as independent, support is split, with 41 percent supporting Hageman and 43 percent supporting Cheney.

Of likely voters in the primary, only 8 percent identify as Democrats, and 21 percent identify as independents. According to King, independents regularly play an important role in Republican primaries and, thus, are key to Cheney’s chances. Her lack of support among Republican identifiers and inability to dominate among independents have placed Cheney well behind Hageman.

Both landline and cellular telephone numbers were randomly generated for the study, resulting in 70 percent of completed surveys on cellphones. The survey was funded by WYSAC; UW’s School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies; and Wyoming Public Media.

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